Liquid Supply Exhaustion Clock
Real-time estimate of when Bitcoin's available liquid supply reaches zero — and what the price models say it'll be worth when it does.
| Halving Era | Mining / Day | Net Drain / Day | Float at Start | Float at End | Status |
|---|
Methodology & Assumptions
Liquid Float: ~2.5 million BTC estimated as genuinely tradeable supply (exchanges + active wallets), per Glassnode and CryptoQuant data as of early 2026. Long-term holder supply (~14.8M BTC) and lost coins (~3–4M BTC) are excluded.
Absorption: ETF net inflows (~400–500 BTC/day), MicroStrategy/Strategy (~150 BTC/day), other corporate buyers (~100 BTC/day), retail net buyers (~150 BTC/day). Scenarios scale these uniformly.
Scarcity Premium: A supply-shock multiplier applied to today's price. As liquid float approaches zero, a scarcity premium compounds with power-law era growth — modeling historical precedent from post-halving price action.
Power Law (Burger Model): Bitcoin price follows a long-term power-law relationship with time since the genesis block. Formula: 10^(5.84 × log₁₀(days) − 17.01). The most historically consistent model across all cycles.
Metcalfe's Law: Network value is proportional to the square of its users. Projects active address growth at 15% CAGR annually and applies Metcalfe's n² valuation, dampened with a sqrt factor for market saturation at scale.
CAGR Projection (25%): Bitcoin's historical CAGR from 2013–2026 is approximately 40%. This model applies a conservative 25% forward CAGR compounded to the exhaustion date.
200-Week MA × 3: The 200-week moving average is Bitcoin's long-term price floor — no weekly close has ever been below it. It grows ~11% annually. At cycle peaks, price historically reaches 3–5× the 200WMA. This model projects the 200WMA to the exhaustion date and applies a 3× multiple.
This is a simulation based on public data and theoretical models. Not financial advice. Glassnode · CryptoQuant